The Combs Team Presents: Alamo Real Estate Sales: Average Price Hits $1,800,000
It’s a little bit early in the year to tell much about our current market especially with the unusually wet conditions we are experiencing. That said, I have held homes open nearly every weekend since the beginning of December and I can report that buyers are out there in droves. Hopefully, their presence is a reasonable predictor of another bright year in Alamo Real Estate.
Our current market is still suffering from a terrible lack of inventory with only 29 homes listed as active. Pending properties are high with a total of 77 properties listed as under contract. From August 1st 2016 to February 21st 2017, a total of 85 properties were sold in Alamo. The Average days on market listed for active properties is 37. For Pending listings the average days on market are listed as 45 and for sold properties 44 days. This is a very hot market with average sales price sitting at $1,800,408 and median sold price at $1,645,000. During the peak of Alamo Real Estate, in 2007 prior to the crash, average price in Alamo hit $1,529,000. The average home in our Alamo market is up about $271,408 from the peak. That’s about an 18% increase in 10 years. Not a very large average return relatively speaking, only about 1.8% per year. So, even though the market is hot today, it really hasn’t kept pace with Real Estate’s historical average of 3% per year. Had the market matched that pace, the Alamo average would stand at more than $2,000,000.
Because in its make-up, average price can contain some very high numbers and some very low numbers, it is useful to break the numbers down a bit, so I’ve included a simple bell chart to illustrate how our Alamo market breaks down. Moving from left to right on the chart we can see that the bottom 25% of homes sold at an average price of $1,210,182 and a median price of $1,270,000. In the center the middle 50% of properties sold at an average price of $1,702,087 and a median price of $1,647,500. To the far right we can see that the top 25% of Alamo home sales begin at $2,100,000. The median price is $2,450,000 and the average price is $2,615,381.
At first glance it seems clear that determining the price for a home sitting in the middle 50% is far less of a challenge than pricing at the margins. In the middle, average and median price are separated by a mere $55,000 while at the upper end the difference is about $165,000. If only it were that simple. When we dig into the detail in the numbers we discover that nearly $500,000 separates the highest priced home from the lowest priced home sold within each of the three separate groups on the bell curve.
So moving into 2017, how does a seller determine the right price to sell their Alamo home and how does a buyer determine what price to offer? If the seller uses average price and the buyer uses median price, it seems likely that there is a better chance of making a deal on those properties sitting in the middle 50% than at the upper end. However, because of the manifold differences among individual properties, neither measure is necessarily useful.
Correctly pricing Alamo Real Estate for sale today involves both an element of science (the numbers) and art which comes from experience with all types of properties selling within the Alamo market. Only solid judgment based upon extensive local market experience and correctly choosing the right comparative homes recently sold can help with this. We will gladly share our experience with you.
Trying to figure out your next move? Need numbers and answers to your fix up questions to make your decision? Nancy and I will be happy to provide you with a personal consultation, including a multi-dimensional analysis of your home’s current value, to help you figure it out. No charge and no pressure just our honest opinions. Please call 925-989-6086 or send me an email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Joe and Nancy Combs, The Combs Team, have a high degree of focus on Danville Real Estate Market and Alamo Real Estate Market and sell Real Estate throughout the East Bay. As always, if you have any questions about the Alamo and Danville California real estate markets, or finding that perfect home for sale in the East Bay, please let The Combs Team know! Call Joe Combs 925-989-6086 or Nancy Combs 925-351-6999.
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Data presented in this column is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Contra Costa and Alameda MLS service and other quoted sources.
This newsletter is not intended as a solicitation if your home is already listed with another agent
Joe Combs, Nancy Combs, The Combs Team, J. Rockcliff Realtors and the MLS service do not guarantee the accuracy of this information. BRE #0144125.